Assessment methods for the reproductive potential of the population
Abstract
The paper considers various approaches to the assessment of reasonable and reliable indicators that characterize the reproductive potential of the population embedded in the system of gender- and age-specific fertility and mortality rates. The authors demonstrate that it is impractical to use the total coefficients of natural population growth due to their dependence on population’s age-sex structure, which can significantly vary over time due to the movement of demographic waves. The authors evaluate the diverse influence of demographic waves on the total fertility rates, mortality rates, and natural movement of the population in Russia in 1990-2000 and 2001-2017. It is suggested to evaluate the reproductive potential of the population by its growth rate calculated only based on the natural movement coefficients for female population younger than 50 and its modification determined on the basis of such coefficients for the male and female population of all ages. The paper provides annual estimates of these indicators for the population of Russia in 1990-2017 and states the reasons for the discrepancies in their values. On the basis of these estimates, the authors identify trends in the variability of the reproductive potential of the population in Russia during the period under review and justify the approaches to determining the directions of socio-economic policy conducive to its increase.
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References
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