Current socio-economic issues of migration regulation: Ukrainian realities and global trends

Volodymyr Horbatenko; Oksana Kukuruz; Ihor Petrenko; Yevheniia Levcheniuk; Halyna Podolian

doi:https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2024.81.09.19

Horbatenko, V., Kukuruz, O., Petrenko, I., Levcheniuk, Y., & Podolian, H. (2024). Current socio-economic issues of migration regulation: Ukrainian realities and global trends. Amazonia Investiga, 13(81), 249-259. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2024.81.09.19

Актуальні соціально-економічні проблеми міграційного регулювання:

Doctor of political sciences, professor, of legal problems of political science V. M. Koretsky Institute of State and Law of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine: Kyiv, UA.

Doctor of Political Sciences, Senior Researcher V. M. Koretsky Institute of State and Law of National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine: Kyiv, Kyiv region, UA.

Doctor of Political Sciences, Professor of the Department of Political Sciences Faculty of Philosophy at the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. (Kyiv, Ukraine).

Ph.D., in Philosophy, Associate Professor at the Department of Philosophy of Humanities, Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv (Kyiv, Ukraine).

Ph.D., in Philosophy, Associate Professor of the Department of Ethics, Aesthetics and Cultural Studies. Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, (Kyiv, Ukraine).

The article discusses migration processes in the first quarter of the 21st century, which have become a characteristic feature of global development and emerged as a global challenge for the future of humanity. One of the factors influencing these processes has been the Russian-Ukrainian war, initiated by the Russian Federation against Ukraine in 2014. Until 2022, this war was perceived by the international community as a localized conflict; however, during this period, it triggered large-scale displacements of people forced to leave their homes due to ethnic cleansing, discrimination, and brutal violations of human rights.

As a result of the large-scale war initiated by Russia against Ukraine, external migration of Ukrainians has reached unprecedented levels, particularly in the countries of the European Union. This situation has come as a surprise both to the state leadership and to many Ukrainians who were unprepared for such a turn of events. Ukraine lacked sufficient experience in managing issues related to mass migration, making it extremely difficult to determine the quantitative and qualitative parameters of migration flows under these extraordinary circumstances. This presents challenges not only for the state but also for international organizations trying to provide assistance and support to Ukrainians who have left their homes.

In such conditions, it is crucial to develop effective strategies to support refugees, integrate them into new societies and cultures, and address the social and economic consequences of this migration.

Keywords: migration processes, forced migration, voluntary migration, academic migration, migrants, migration policy.

У статті розглянуті міграційні процеси в першій чверті ХХІ століття, що стали характерною ознакою світового розвитку й вийшли на рівень глобального виклику у подальшому розвитку людства. Одним із чинників, що вплинув на ці процеси, стала російсько-українська війна, розв’язана у 2014 році Російською Федерацією проти України. Ця війна у сприйнятті світової спільноти до 2022 року мала локальний характер, однак уже в цей період вона спровокувала масштабні переміщення людей, які змушені були покинути свої домівки внаслідок етноциду, дискримінації, брутального порушення прав людини.

Внаслідок широкомасштабної війни, розв’язаної Росією проти України, зовнішня міграція українців досягла безпрецедентних масштабів, особливо в країнах Європейського Союзу. Ця ситуація стала несподіванкою як для державного керівництва, так і для багатьох українців, які не були готові до такого розвитку подій. Україна не мала достатнього досвіду в управлінні проблемами масової міграції, тому визначити кількісні та якісні параметри міграційних потоків у цих надзвичайних умовах виявилося надзвичайно складно. Це створює виклики не лише для держави, а й для міжнародних організацій, які намагаються надати допомогу та підтримку українцям, що покинули свої домівки.

У таких умовах важливо розробити ефективні стратегії для підтримки біженців, інтеграції їх у нові суспільства, культури та вирішити соціальні та економічні наслідки цієї міграції.

Ключові слова: міграційні процеси, вимушена міграція, добровільна міграція, академічна міграція, мігранти, міграційна політика.

Migration processes are a fundamental aspect of human development. Since the early twentieth century, they have become a pervasive phenomenon, affecting almost every country globally. The movement of populations from one region to another triggers significant socio-economic, political, cultural, religious, and demographic transformations. The primary determinants of migration include:

Consequently, migration can be categorized into voluntary and forced types. Economic motivations typically drive voluntary migration, whereas forced migration is often a result of political persecution, military conflicts, or natural disasters, representing a crucial means of ensuring human survival and development. «The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine is not merely a contemporary geopolitical struggle; it is a complex narrative woven with historical threads that extend deep into the annals of time. Amidst the modern dynamics of this war, a peculiar dimension surfaces –Russia's deliberate ascription of certain narratives from Ukrainian history, particularly those rooted in the ancient past. This strategic incorporation of historical narratives adds a layer of complexity to the conflict, highlighting the interplay between history, geopolitics, and national identity. Therefore, the modern Russian-Ukrainian war is not merely a clash of military forces on the battlefield; it is a manifestation of historical grievances, territorial disputes, and competing geopolitical ambitions» (Derviş, 2024).

Moreover, migration is influenced by both uncontrollable and controllable factors. Uncontrollable factors encompass natural conditions and geographical locations, whereas controllable factors include demographic attributes like population growth, age and gender composition, and the ethnic makeup of indigenous populations and migrants. Socio-psychological factors also play a role, including the intensity of social interactions, living conditions, and the level of communication development.

Despite advancements in international cooperation and the establishment of organizations aimed at maintaining global peace and security, armed conflicts persist in various regions such as Libya, Syria, Mali, Israel, Iran, and Ukraine (due to Russia's war of aggression against the Ukrainian people), perpetuating substantial refugee flows worldwide. Migrants' reception varies globally. For instance, the United States, Israel, and Hungary enforce stringent legislative controls over migration processes; Australia and Canada adopt a balanced approach with entry questionnaires; and the United Arab Emirates regulates labor migration with specific policies that restrict the permanency of residence for workers from countries like Pakistan, Malaysia, and India. Conversely, many European countries are experiencing challenges due to increasing migrant inflows from Africa, Asia, and other regions, significantly altering the continent's economic, demographic, religious, and ethnic landscapes and frequently catalyzing various scales and types of conflicts.

The article consists of an introduction, three sections, conclusions and a list of references. The article is one of the first systematic attempts to investigate the pace of migration from Ukraine since 2022. The article focuses attention on the reasons and scope of migration, which will allow further research to determine the ways of re-emigration.

Migration processes are one of the characteristic features of modern societal development. Scientific literature primarily focuses on statistical data related to migration. However, as M. Kasyanova points out, quantitative indicators vary significantly because they depend on many factors, including state statistical agencies, migration services, and others. The war complicates trust in data obtained under unusual circumstances. This study utilizes data provided by the UN, which states that Ukraine ranks among the top ten countries in the world with the highest number of international migrants.

The research emphasizes that this wave of migration is uneven, fluid, and difficult to track. This is due to the fact that people who left at the beginning of the war have already returned, while others have left without registering with consulates. Additionally, some remain in European countries in transit, waiting for visas to the USA and Canada. The study of migration processes continues as the war persists, making it impossible to assess the demographic situation or make predictions. Another pressing issue is the need to develop reintegration strategies, which should be implemented immediately after the cessation of hostilities.

Europe has not experienced such intensity of migration since the Second World War. A survey by the UNHCR reveals that 87% of migrants are women with children, and 65% of these women are of working age, between 18 to 59 years old. Furthermore, approximately 70% of the migrants surveyed possess a university degree (Pyshnyi, 2022). These statistics reflect that migrants are not an economic burden for European countries; rather, they represent a substantial social and human capital. During the nine months following the onset of the full-scale war in Ukraine, migrants have provided significant economic impetus to Europe. Firstly, Ukrainian spending abroad has surged notably. According to the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), the volume of imports of services under the travel item increased dramatically in 2022, reaching up to $2 billion per month. Secondly, from March to October, over eight months, Ukrainians spent more than $15 billion abroad (Pyshnyi, 2022).

Ukrainian sociologists have noted that the war has significantly complicated the credibility of sociological data collected under unusual conditions. They caution that, given the "extremely short distance of observation in 2022, the reliability of judgements and statements is constantly in doubt due to the high dynamics of the extraordinary situation." As a result, they argue that "the true cognitive status of confirmation or refutation of reliability will be revealed only later" (Dembitskyi et al., 2022, p. 20). This skepticism underlines the challenges of conducting and interpreting sociological research in contexts disrupted by rapid and profound changes, suggesting that conclusions drawn from such data are provisional and subject to future validation.

А. Suprunovskyi, who expresses a similar judgement, specifies the reasons for this and draws attention to the need to observe chronological sequence in recording quantitative indicators of migration: ‘Despite the existing scale of forced migration in Ukraine under martial law, information on the volume of such movements is rather relative. This is understandable, as the characteristics of the composition and directions of migration are constantly changing. The hostilities are ongoing, which means that civilians continue to evacuate or leave of their own free will from dangerous regions of the country. At the same time, the liberation of some of the previously occupied territories by the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the reduction of panic have enabled some displaced persons to return to their homes. This requires that each time the statistical indicators of forced migration are assessed, the date of their formation should be taken into account’ (Suprunovskyi, 2022, p. 475).

The number of Ukrainian migrants has significantly exceeded any predictions. It is impossible to hold those making such predictions accountable, as none of the developed scenarios by migration specialists could foresee the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, and consequently, the large-scale migration of the population from Ukraine. In this regard, I. Malik notes: "In the lives of Ukrainians, there is only a conditional 'before.' There is no conditional 'after.' The quantitative and qualitative social changes are so enormous that it is practically impossible to outline their characteristics and calculate the consequences" (Malik, 2022). According to Ukrainian researchers from the Cedos analytical center, 3.6 million people left Ukraine within the first month of the war (Filipchuk et al., 2022). As stated by the authors Krasnodemska, I., Savitskaya, M., Berezan, V., Tovstukha, O., and Rodchenko, L., the war in Ukraine has created a significant need for psychological support and assistance for citizens. According to a study conducted by the International Organization for Migration, more than 15 million Ukrainians have reported a deterioration in their mental well-being since the start of the full-scale invasion, and almost one in four Ukrainians (23%) are in need of psychological and psychosocial assistance (Krasnodemska et al., 2023)

The situation is complicated by the fact that millions of Ukrainian refugees have found themselves outside the country due to military aggression. Currently, there are various expert estimates regarding how many of them will return to their homeland after the war ends. Many specialists believe that a significant portion of those who have managed to adapt will choose to remain abroad. «It should be noted that it is unlikely that the creators of the «Marshall Plan for Ukraine» will establish economic conditions and offer salary levels that are more attractive than those in Eastern and Central European countries where Ukrainian workers are employed» (UGSPL, 2022).

Therefore, it is quite probable that we will face the paradox of millions of Ukrainians working abroad despite a severe shortage of labor resources, while international recruitment agencies will be bringing a large number of labor immigrants from developing countries to Ukraine.»

Identification of previously unresolved parts of the overall problem. The large-scale war unleashed by Russia against Ukraine has precipitated a surge in the external migration of the Ukrainian population, reaching unprecedented levels, particularly within the European Union. This situation underscores Ukraine's lack of experience in handling large-scale external migration. The extraordinary circumstances of war complicate the recording of quantitative and qualitative parameters of migration. Even in relatively calm periods, problems with statistical data on departures from Ukraine were evident. M. M. Kasyanova highlights these issues, noting, "Identification of quantitative indicators of Ukrainian migration is complicated by internal statistics of individual state institutions, whose data usually vary significantly. The main source of knowledge about migration is its current accounting, which is carried out by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine based on data on registration and deregistration of persons at the place of residence by processing arrival/departure sheets filled in at the time of registration at the units of the State Migration Service" (Kasyanova, 2017, p. 228). Clearly, the war has exacerbated these challenges, making it nearly impossible to expect people to officially apply for a change of residence.

According to the UN Refugee Agency, in 2022 alone, 9.7 million people left Ukraine, 5.9 million became internally displaced, 3.7 million returned, and 5 to 15 million lost their jobs. These figures are staggering, representing nearly a third of Ukraine's population. Is it too early to discuss the return of our citizens to their homeland? While there is no definitive answer yet, several conditions for return can be identified: first, ensuring safety for life; second, providing suitable living and educational conditions; third, developing programs to stimulate the national and regional labor markets; and fourth, crafting a long-term migration policy that draws on the experience of other countries while effectively adapting it to the unique challenges and realities of Ukraine.

Purpose. The purpose of this study is to determine the extent and consequences of forced migration from Ukraine, with a particular focus on the impacts awaiting Ukrainian society, including socio-economic, political, cultural, and nation-building consequences.

Given the current global increase in migration triggered by shifts in economic, political, and environmental conditions, this research underscores the need for international cooperation to address the integration challenges faced by developed countries and the loss of skilled labor in less developed nations.

The study employs a combination of philosophical, general, and specialized scientific methods:

Since the onset of Russia's military invasion, Ukraine has experienced unprecedented levels of external migration. Initially characterized by spontaneous and urgent departures in search of safety, the majority of those fleeing the country have been women and children. The fluid nature of this migration wave makes accurate recording challenging, as some individuals who left at the conflict's start have since returned, while others continue to leave. Most internally displaced persons (IDPs) have relocated to European countries via Poland or remained within Ukraine. Notably, some migrants have not registered with their consulates, while others remain in transit across various European nations, awaiting visas to further destinations such as the United States and Canada.

The massive influx of migrants has necessitated that governments of recipient countries undertake complex daily decisions concerning legal, political, psychological, managerial, social, and medical aspects. Early in March 2022, the Council of the European Union anticipated the challenges stemming from the forced migration of the Ukrainian population, particularly noting the strain on its eastern borders due to the conflict. It was estimated that half of the Ukrainians arriving in the Union, benefiting from visa-free travel for short stays, would either join family members or seek employment within the Union, while the other half would apply for international protection. Predictions suggested that 2.5 million to 6.5 million people could be displaced due to the armed conflict, with 1.2 to 3.2 million potentially seeking international protection. In a worst-case scenario, as per UNHCR data, about 4 million people could leave Ukraine (European Union, 2022).

In response to this crisis, the European Union swiftly enacted the Temporary Protection Directive on March 4, 2022, marking the first such implementation in its history. This Directive was designed to manage the substantial influx of displaced persons and to provide temporary protection to those fleeing the war in Ukraine, with the European Commission coordinating the efforts of EU countries in this regard (European Union, 2022).

Sociological research and surveys shed light on the demographic profile of the average IDP from Ukraine: typically, a woman aged 30 to 39, who left Ukraine in March with higher or incomplete higher education. This individual is likely a qualified specialist, manager, entrepreneur, or housewife, originally residing in a city rather than a village, and hailing from Kyiv or one of the southern, eastern, or central regions of Ukraine. Most often, she is abroad with her children, and less frequently with her parents, husband, or other relatives (Аkinina, 2022).

The status of Ukrainians abroad primarily falls into three categories: refugees, asylum-seekers, and persons in need of temporary protection. The heterogeneity of the Ukrainian migrants' strategies and tactics is notable. Some are actively adapting to the host country's labor market and learning the language with intentions to stay, while others, overcoming initial stress and fear, plan to return to Ukraine. A third group passively awaits developments in and around Ukraine, content with the minimal support provided by the host authorities and communities (Dembitskyi et al., 2022, p. 237).

According to the UNHCR's report for March-December 2022, approximately 7.9 million refugees left Ukraine and sought protection across Europe, with over 4 million granted access to temporary protection or a similar status by the end of the year (UNHCR, 2023).

The extensive migration from Ukraine, prompted by Russia's large-scale invasion, has led to a substantial number of Ukrainians seeking refuge across Europe and beyond. A summary by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine and various statistical sources provides an overview of the displacement and current status of Ukrainian refugees in individual countries as of December 2022 and early 2023:

As of the first anniversary of the invasion, the total number of Ukrainians living abroad was estimated at 7,989,027. Significant host countries include Poland, Germany, the USA, and the Czech Republic, among others.

Further data from Statista highlight the broader scale of movement across the Ukrainian border from 24 February 2022 to 7 March 2023, with 19,293,161 people having left Ukraine and 10,823,841 returning.

These statistics underscore the widespread impact of the conflict on Ukrainian migration, illustrating both the vast scale of displacement and the dynamic nature of migration patterns. The ongoing situation necessitates continued international cooperation and support to manage the complex needs of displaced Ukrainians effectively.

The number of citizens who left and returned to Ukraine between February 24, 2022, and March 27, 2023.

Additional notes: Russia as of 3 October 2022, Belarus as of 14 February 2023, Romania as of 26 March 2023, Moldova as of 26 March 2023; border crossing data with Ukraine is not available for Russia, Hungary and Belarus; Belarus and Russia are countries not included in the Refugee Response Plan (Statista Research Department, 3 April 2023).

It is important to understand that all statistics on refugees from Ukraine contain errors, including the quantitative indicators from UNHCR. In particular, their official website draws attention to the following objective reasons:

1) The figure ‘Refugees from Ukraine registered for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe’ may include multiple registrations of the same person in two or more EU+ countries; there are registrations that remain incomplete for various reasons, as well as registrations of refugees who have moved on, including outside Europe;

2) Statistics are compiled mainly on the basis of data provided by the authorities, but subsequently, after verification of all statistical information, there are amendments, including retroactive ones.

As of 4 April 2023, according to The Operational Data Portal (ODP) enables UNHCR’s institutional responsibility to provide an information and data sharing platform to facilitate coordination of refugee emergencies. This was achieved using independent ‘situation views’ covering major emergencies such as the Syria situation or the Central African Republic emergency, among others. UNHCR's Rapid Data Platform (https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/ukraine), 8,163,268 refugees from Ukraine were recorded across Europe, with 5,027,182 registered for temporary protection or similar national protection schemes in Europe. The platform also contains statistics for 44 countries. First of all, information is provided on the countries listed in the Refugee Response Plan, then on all other countries, and Russia and Belarus are separately highlighted. The statistics include the number of people: who crossed the border from and to Ukraine; who are registered in the country; who have been granted temporary protection (in EU countries) or similar protected status.

Statistics reflecting the number of individuals who crossed the border into and out of Ukraine; those registered in the country; and those who received temporary protection (in EU countries) or a similar protected status.

Determine the title and authorship of each graph, image, figure presented in the article.

Statistics reflecting the number of individuals who crossed the border between Ukraine and Russia, as well as between Ukraine and Belarus.

The statistics highlight Poland's prominent role in accommodating Ukrainian refugees, a trend driven by several factors. Poland has maintained strong diplomatic relationships with Ukraine, which have been consistently affirmed by both nations' leaders despite historical complexities. This has established a foundation of goodwill and cooperation. Subjectively, Poland is strategically positioned on the European Union's external border, focusing both national and international efforts on managing mass migration effectively. Moreover, Poland's migration policies are deliberately designed to create favorable conditions for Ukrainians, aligning with its strategic goal of improving the demographic situation within its own borders (Kukuruz, 2023). Consequently, many Ukrainians prefer Poland as a destination over other countries.

According to Ukrainian sociologists, while some external migrants have returned to Ukraine, others are ready to return if the security situation improves. However, about 10% of external migrants believe their departure from Ukraine is permanent. The prospect of Ukrainians returning remains fraught with uncertainties. «When evaluating the prospects for the return to Ukraine of those who left after February 24, 2022, it is important not to ignore the division into two vastly unequal groups: the majority consists of those who left Ukraine in search of safety, while a much smaller group comprises those who chose to take the opportunity to move to a more developed and prosperous country. It is not advisable to attempt to bring back people from the second group, as they have chosen this path for themselves. Instead, it is essential to strive for the maximum return of mothers with children, rather than facing a mass emigration of their husbands after the war» (Libanova et al., 2022). The Ukrainian Helsinki Human Rights Union (UHHRU), with the support of the European Union, conducted focus group research across 12 EU countries, revealing that most respondents intend to return to Ukraine post-conflict. Yet, immediate return is hindered by factors such as lack of physical security, destruction of housing, and the ongoing occupation of their territories by the Russian Federation (Potapenko et al., 2023).

R. Vynnychuk and N. Rubakha suggest that, based on the experience of previous refugee crises, some individuals who flee war choose to stay permanently in host countries, particularly when entire families migrate, and in this case, primarily women with children (Vynnychuk & Rubakha, 2022). The ongoing conflict and Ukraine's uncertain economic future make it challenging to predict the full scale of migration and the likelihood of return.

Summarizing the situation, it is evident that the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian war significantly impacts the Ukrainian economy and increases the likelihood that a substantial portion of the population may not return, thereby affecting the country's demographic potential. It is imperative, even before the conflict concludes, to develop methodologies to accurately assess the scale and dynamics of Ukrainian migration abroad. This includes reconciling discrepancies in data regarding border crossings provided by Ukrainian and international organizations, clarifying terminology for different groups of displaced Ukrainians, and enhancing mechanisms for registering Ukrainian citizens abroad, including improvements to the consular registration system.

As Ukraine continues to integrate into European structures, its migration policy should align with EU standards, particularly regarding the basic principles of EU migration policy. There should be a state-level program to encourage the return of migrants, which could involve attracting investment to Ukraine and incentivizing businesses to create jobs, thereby leveraging opportunities for bilateral economic cooperation.

Currently, the pace of emigration abroad has slowed down. However, the continuation of the war may lead to further migration of the Ukrainian population abroad. The intensity and direction of this migration will depend on many factors, including: the expansion or contraction of the combat zone; progress in the de-occupation of the remaining temporarily occupied territories; the resilience of local critical infrastructure; direct shelling of populated areas by Russian forces; the emergence of crisis phenomena of a technological or natural nature; the level of socio-economic recovery in liberated territories; and changes in the labor market and economic structure of different regions.

In future research, it is important to focus on measures related to the cultural integration of migrants in their host areas, as they have found themselves in unfamiliar social and cultural conditions due to forced migration. Targeted cultural efforts are needed to familiarize migrants with the historical and cultural traditions of the host area and to promote mutual understanding with local residents. Establishing such initiatives with financial support from the Ukrainian Cultural Foundation and the organizational involvement of local authorities will help mitigate the socio-psychological consequences of forced migration and facilitate their inclusion in the socio-economic life of the recipient regions and communities.

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