Volume 11 - Issue 60
/ December 2022
75
http:// www.amazoniainvestiga.info ISSN 2322- 6307
DOI: https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2022.60.12.8
How to Cite:
Horiunova, Y., Shemchuk, V., Lysianskyi, P., Vykhovanets, Z., & Gerasymova, E. (2022). Foreign policy strategy of Ukraine in the
context of the Russia-Ukraine war. Amazonia Investiga, 11(60), 75-89. https://doi.org/10.34069/AI/2022.60.12.8
Foreign policy strategy of Ukraine in the context of the Russia-Ukraine
war
Стратегія зовнішньої політики України в умовах російсько-української війни
Received: December 4, 2022 Accepted: December 29, 2022
Written by:
Yevheniia Horiunova32
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9398-9334
Viktor Shemchuk33
https://orcid.org/
0000-0001-7969-6589
Pavlo Lysianskyi34
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3997-9335
Zorina Vykhovanets35
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1653-5873
Elvira Gerasymova36
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0046-8458
Abstract
The military invasion of the aggressor state into
Ukraine is one of the most relevant topics in the
recent Ukrainian and world academic literature
because the results of the conflict will affect not
only national interests but also the security and
well-being of other states. Ukraine’s foreign
policy strategy plays a significant role in the
further development of the conflict. It improves
relations with other states, obtaining support in
the fight against the aggressor, restoring
Ukraine's integrity and citizens' safety,
counteracting the food crisis, etc. The study aims
to determine the main strategic directions of
Ukraine’s foreign policy, the characteristics of its
legislative support, and its current state. The
research used the following methods: economic
and statistical analysis, the establishment of
causal relationships, and the comparative
method. The study identified and described six
main directions of Ukraine’s foreign policy.
Legislative documents that enshrine the outlined
directions were identified. The government’s
steps in specific directions were described. The
statistical characteristics of individual areas of
Анотація
Воєнне вторгнення держави-агресора в
Україну є однією з найбільш актуальних тем
сучасності в українській та світовій науковій
літературі, адже результати конфлікту
впливатимуть не лише на національні інтереси,
а і на безпеку та добробут країн світу. Значну
роль у подальшому розвитку конфлікту
відіграє стратегія зовнішньої політики
України. Вона впливає на поліпшення
взаємовідносин з іншими державами,
отримання підтримки у боротьбі проти
агресора, відновлення цілісності України,
безпеку її громадян, протидію продовольчій
кризі тощо. Метою дослідження є визначення
основних стратегічних напрямів зовнішньої
політики України, характеристика їх
законодавчого забезпечення та сучасного
стану. У ході дослідження було використано
такі методи: економіко-статистичний аналіз,
встановлення причинно-наслідкових зв’язків,
порівняльний метод. В результаті дослідження
було охарактеризовано шість основних
напрямів зовнішньої політики України.
Визначено законодавчі документи, що
32
PhD of Historical Sciences, Аssociate professor, Department of Philosophy and History, Educational and Scientific Humanitarian
Institute, V.I. Vernadsky Taurida National University, Kyiv, Ukraine.
33
Doctor of Juridical Sciences, Professor, Department of Theory of Law, Constitutional and Private Law, Faculty No.1 of the Institute
for the Training of Specialists for Units of the National Police, Lviv State University of Internal Affairs, Lviv, Ukraine.
34
Graduate Student, Department of Political Theories of the National University "Odesa Law Academy", Odesa, Ukraine.
35
PhD of Philosophical Sciences Associate professor, Department of Foreign Languages National Pirogov Memorial Medical
University, Vinnytsya, Ukraine.
36
Doctor of Philosophical Sciences, Professor, Department of Philosophy and Social Anthropology named after Professor I. P. Stogni,
Faculty of Historical and Social-Psychological Education, Hryhorii Skovoroda University in Pereiaslav, Pereyaslav, Ukraine.
76
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Ukraine’s foreign policy were outlined. The state
of some aspects of Ukraine’s foreign policy
before the war and after the full-scale invasion
was compared. Ukraine’s prospects for achieving
the desired results in the specified areas were
assessed.
Keywords: export, foreign policy, protection of
citizens’ rights, Russia-Ukraine war, territorial
integrity.
забезпечують окреслені напрями.
Охарактеризовано кроки уряду стосовно руху у
визначених напрямах. Окреслено статистичні
характеристики за окремими напрямами
зовнішньої політики України. Порівняно стан
деяких аспектів зовнішньої політики України
до війни і після повномасштабного вторгнення.
Оцінено перспективи України стосовно
досягнення бажаних результатів за
визначеними напрямами.
Ключові слова: стратегія, зовнішня політика,
російсько-українська війна, територіальна
цілісність, суверенітет, ЄС, НАТО, експорт,
захист прав громадян, позитивний імідж.
Introduction
A full-scale invasion of Ukraine requires
decisive action of the Ukrainian government and
the entire world community. The issue of
Ukraine’s victory in the war goes beyond a
national scale - it affects the interests of the
whole world in the context of guaranteeing the
independence and security of states. The foreign
policy of Ukraine in the wartime impacts the
results of the conflict in terms of establishing
mutually beneficial relations with the states to
achieve victory over the invaders. The
improvement of diplomatic relations with the EU
countries and the world ensures increased
support for Ukraine in the wartime, creates
prerequisites for the post-war recovery of the
country, stimulates investment in Ukraine, etc.
This study is based on the Foreign Policy
Strategy of Ukraine (hereinafter referred to as
“the Strategy”) adopted on August 26, 2021
(Decree No. n0054525-21, 2021). Adopting the
Strategy means that Ukraine has got a strategic
document on foreign policy for the first time in
the history of the state (Government portal,
2021). The main guidelines of the Strategy are
valid even during martial law, despite the fact
that it was adopted before the full-scale invasion
of the Russian Federation (RF) of the sovereign
territory of Ukraine. The Russian Federation
used acts of aggression against Ukraine even
before the full-scale invasion, and the Strategy
provides for countering such aggression and
restoring the territorial integrity of the state as
one of its main directions. This and other areas of
the Strategy are considered in this article in the
context of their legal support and main
achievements at the time of writing a paper.
The aim of the study is to determine the main
strategic directions of Ukraine’s foreign policy,
outline their legislative support and current state.
The objectives to be fulfilled in the course of the
research correspond to the six main directions of
the Strategy:
1) study the main legal aspects of ensuring the
sovereignty and territorial integrity of
Ukraine;
2) determine the main factors affecting the
success of Ukraine in countering the
aggressive policy of the Russian Federation,
as well as countering such aggression at the
international level;
3) outline the current state and prospects of
Ukraine regarding its accession to the EU
and NATO;
4) identify the state and prospects of Ukrainian
exports during the wartime;
5) provide statistics on the number of
Ukrainians abroad during the war and the
main aspects related to the protection of their
rights and interests;
6) describe the content of the strategic direction
regarding the promotion of a positive image
of Ukraine in the world.
Literature Review
Analysing the Strategy, Pashkov (2021), singles
out three key provisions to which he refers: the
course towards the European and Euro-Atlantic
integration, counteraction to the aggressor state,
and the economic component of foreign policy.
Besides, the researcher notes that the Strategy
identifies five countries that are strategic for
Ukraine. These countries include the USA, Great
Britain, Canada, Germany and France.
Moreover, the Strategy defines other strategic
partners of Ukraine: Poland, Turkey, Azerbaijan,
Georgia, Lithuania, Romania, China, Brazil. It
emphasizes the importance of developing
relations with Japan, India, and Moldova.
Horiunova, Y., Shemchuk, V., Lysianskyi, P., Vykhovanets, Z., Gerasymova, E. / Volume 11 - Issue 60: 75-89 / December, 2022
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Sarakhman (2022) examined the aspects of
ensuring the territorial integrity and inviolability
of Ukraine. The researcher approached the
problem from a theoretical and legal perspective,
and described the main legislative documents
that ensure the territorial integrity and
sovereignty of Ukraine in a historical sequence.
Kresin (2022) studied the legal aspects of
countering Russian aggression and restoring
Ukraine’s territorial integrity. The researcher
explored the results of the international expert
round table — Deoccupation. Legal Front —
concerning the analysis and development of
proposals regarding legal and political issues of
countering aggression, de-occupation, and
restoring the integrity of Ukraine. Considerable
attention in the research was paid to the
qualification of the annexation of Crimea and the
city of Sevastopol, the qualification of the status
of the Separate Districts of Luhansk and Donetsk
Regions (ORDLO) and other important issues,
including the importance of holding the Russian
Federation (from 2014) and the Republic of
Belarus (from 2022) liable for war crimes.
Melnyk (2021) outlined the meaning and
significance of enshrining the provisions on the
EU and NATO membership course in the
Constitution of Ukraine. The researcher notes
that the issue of Ukraine’s accession to the EU
and NATO concerning economic, cultural,
geopolitical conditions in the country is complex
and multifaceted. The legislative enshrinement
of Ukraine’s course towards the accession to the
said organizations promotes the government’s
relevant actions and measures in that direction.
The course of the Russia-Ukraine war, in
particular the Ukraine’s foreign policy in the
wartime, affects not only national, but also global
interests. Many researchers focus on the issue of
Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO in
the context of a military invasion. Van Elsuwege
and Van der Loo (28 March 2022) note that
Ukraine’s EU membership application caused
mixed reactions – eight European countries
expressed support, while Germany, France and
others expressed doubts and suggested that
Ukraine is not ready for the process. Bélanger (16
March 2022) also outlines Ukraine’s prospects
for becoming a candidate country for EU
membership, and examines the motives of
European countries supporting this course of
Ukraine. Ukraine is mostly supported by its close
neighbours — Bulgaria, the Czech Republic,
Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and
Slovenia. The researcher explains this by the
greater interdependence between Ukraine and
neighbouring countries, security considerations
— extending the EU border further to the East, a
more even distribution of influence in the EU
with the accession of a new country from the
eastern side. Sapir (2022) assesses Ukraine’s
chances of joining the EU before the war and in
the wartime. The researcher also notes that
joining the EU depends not only on the country’s
fulfilment of all the requirements, but also on the
readiness of the EU itself to accept new
members.
The impact of the war in Ukraine on world food
security, in particular in the context of the export
of Ukrainian grain, is another relevant issue
studied by the researchers from different
countries. Stimulating exports in general is one
of the strategic directions of Ukraine’s foreign
policy, and grain is one of the key export
commodity. In this context, Ben Hassen and El
Bilali (2022) define the Russian-Ukrainian
confrontation as a “conflict between two major
agricultural powers” that has significant negative
consequences for global food security. Jagtap et
al., (2022) note that stopping the war and restore
agricultural production in Ukraine is a quick
solution to the problem of the risk of a food crisis.
They also underline that the countries of Europe
and Africa will suffer the most from disruptions
in exports. Hellegers (2022) also focused on the
consequences for some African countries that are
most vulnerable to such shocks, and emphasized
the need to develop programmes and measures to
absorb such shocks.
Summing up the literature review, it is worth
noting that the Foreign Policy Strategy of
Ukraine adopted in 2021 outlines the main
directions of the state’s foreign policy, which are
relevant both before the full-scale invasion and in
the wartime. Such directions promote the
realization of the main national interests of
Ukraine and improve the well-being and security
of its citizens. The strategic directions of
Ukraine’s foreign policy play an important role
not only for the country itself, but also affect the
economic and political conditions of other
countries. Therefore, an important issue is the
study of the legal support of the strategic
directions of the foreign policy and the steps of
Ukraine in the specified directions.
Methodology
Research design
The research design is based on the six priority
directions of the Foreign Policy Strategy of
Ukraine defined by the Minister of Foreign
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Affairs of Ukraine. The structure of this study
was built according to these directions. These
include: ensuring the sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Ukraine, opposing the aggressive
policy of the Russian Federation, the course
towards membership in the EU and NATO,
promoting Ukrainian exports and attracting
foreign investment, protecting the rights and
interests of Ukrainian citizens abroad, promoting
a positive image of Ukraine in the world.
The first stage of the study involved outlining the
main legal aspects related to ensuring the
sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine.
The main legislative documents establishing the
state sovereignty of Ukraine were determined.
The second stage of the study provided for
identifying the factors that contribute to effective
countermeasures against Russian aggression.
The main international documents condemning
the aggressive actions of the invaders were
described. In particular, the main provisions of
three UN resolutions on countering Russian
aggression were considered.
The third stage of the study involved identifying
the current state and outlining prospects for
Ukraine’s membership in the EU. The main
content of the EU Commission’s
Recommendations for Ukraine’s EU candidate
status was revealed. It is noted that Ukraine is
waiting for an European Commission’s opinion
regarding its compliance with the
Recommendations at the end of 2022.
The fourth stage of the study provided for the
description statistics on Ukrainian exports, which
is also one of the strategic directions of Ukraine’s
foreign policy. The geographical structure of
foreign trade in goods with EU countries was
presented, the growth of Ukraine’s exports in
2021 was established, and the commodity
structure of Ukraine’s exports to EU countries
was built. The changes in Ukraine’s exports for
the months of 2021 compared to the
corresponding periods of 2022 (in the course of
the military invasion) were also revealed.
Besides, the total amount of investment in
Ukraine and the shares of the investing countries
in this amount are presented. The prospects of
investment in Ukraine after the beginning of the
war are outlined.
The fifth and sixth stages briefly describe the
content of such strategic areas of foreign policy
as protecting the rights and interests of Ukrainian
citizens abroad and promoting a positive image
of Ukraine in the world.
Information background of the research
The information background of the research is
academic periodicals of Ukraine and other
countries, as well as a number of national and
international legislative documents, in particular:
Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine
No. 55-XII dated 16 July 1990;
UN Refugee Convention dated 28 July 1951;
Constitution of Ukraine Decree No. 254k/96-VR
dated 28 June 1996;
EU Commission’s Recommendations for
Ukraine’s EU candidate status;
Law of Ukraine on National Security of Ukraine
No. 2469-VIII dated 21 June 2018;
Resolution of the Verkhovna Rada on the
Declaration of Ukraine’s Independence
No. 1427-XII dated 24 August 1991;
Decree of the President of Ukraine No. 392/2020
dated 14 September 2020 on the decision of the
National Security and Defence Council of
Ukraine dated 14 September 2020 “On the
National Security Strategy of Ukraine”;
Decision of the National Security and Defence
Council of Ukraine dated 30 July 2021 on the
Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine;
Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees dated
16 December 1966.
Besides, the article involved publicly available
statistics from the following resources: Voice of
America, State Statistics Service of Ukraine,
Diia.Business, National Bank of Ukraine,
Bankchart.
Research methods
The research involved the following scientific
methods:
− economic and statistical analysis to
determine the structure and dynamics of the
studied indicators;
− establishment of causal relationships to
compare the strategic goals of Ukraine’s
foreign policy and their impact on the
realization of national interests and the
interests of other countries;
− comparative method to assess the state of
certain economic and political aspects
before the start of the war and upon the
invasion.
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Results
Guaranteeing the sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Ukraine
The state sovereignty of Ukraine was proclaimed
in 1990 by the Declaration of State Sovereignty
of Ukraine. The document states that the
Verkhovna Rada of the Ukrainian Soviet
Socialist Republic (USSR) declares “as
supremacy, independence, integrity, and
indivisibility of the Republic’s authority within
the boundaries of its territory, and its
independence and equality in foreign relations.”
The Declaration also enshrines the provision that
“any violent actions against the national
statehood of Ukraine undertaken by political
parties, non-governmental organization, other
groups or individuals shall be legally prosecuted”
(Decree No. 55-XII, 1990).
The following year 1991 in the history of
Ukraine was marked by Ukraine’s gained
independence, which was established by the Act
of Declaration of Independence of Ukraine. This
document states that “the territory of Ukraine is
indivisible and inviolable” (Decree No.1427-XII,
1991). In 1996, the Constitution of Ukraine was
adopted, where Article 2 also states: “The
territory of Ukraine within its present border is
indivisible and inviolable” (Decree No. 254к/96-
VR, 1996).
However, less two decades have passed since the
establishment of this provision, when the
territorial integrity of Ukraine was violated.
Since 2014, the world has been watching the
Ukraine’s struggle against the aggression of the
Russian Federation and violations of numerous
norms of international law in relation to Ukraine.
In 2018, the Law on National Security of Ukraine
was adopted, which defines “state sovereignty
and state integrity, democratic constitutional
system, non-interference in the internal affairs of
Ukraine” as the first of the fundamental national
interests of Ukraine (Decree No.2469-VIII,
2018). The 2020 National Security Strategy of
Ukraine recognizes "the establishment of peace,
restoration of sovereignty and territorial integrity
of Ukraine within its internationally recognized
state border” as the highest priority of the state
(Decree No. 392/2020, 2020).
Guaranteeing the sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Ukraine was listed first among the
priorities of the Strategy, which is the basis for
this study. This and the following sections of the
article reveal information on each of the priorities
of the Strategy in the context a military invasion.
As a summary of the first section, it should be
noted that the sovereignty of Ukraine is
enshrined in a number of regulatory documents,
although the aggressor state continues to violate
the norms of international law on the territory of
Ukraine. This determines the second priority
direction of the Strategy, which is related to
counteracting the aggression of the Russian
Federation.
Counteracting the aggressive policy of the
Russian Federation
It is known since the beginning of the war that
the political leadership of the aggressor state
intended to capture Ukraine “in three days”
(Ukrinform, 2022). However, more than nine
months had passed since the beginning of the war
at the time of the study, and the last period was
characterized by remarkable combat successes of
the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) in the de-
occupation of numerous settlements in the
country.
Ukraine’s success in counteracting the
aggression of the Russian Federation is explained
by a number of both internal and external factors.
The main directions (factors) of counteracting
aggression include:
− military training of the Armed Forces of
Ukraine, in particular veterans, their loyalty
to the national idea, positive influence on the
morale of citizens;
− strengthening the unity of Ukrainians in the
face of the enemy, active participation in
various actions and donations in favour of
the Armed Forces;
− the activities of the Ukrainian authorities,
the authority of the President of Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyi as a recognized leader
both among compatriots and among foreign
partners;
− reforming the legislative framework to adapt
to current realities;
− intensity of political and diplomatic
relations, significant international support
for Ukraine;
− imposing sanctions against the aggressor
state, etc.
The activities of the United Nations (UN) in
countering Russian aggression deserve special
attention. In this context, it is appropriate to note
the main provisions of the resolutions adopted by
the UN Human Rights Council:
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− Aggression against Ukraine No. A/RES/ES-
11/1 dated 2 March 2022 (United Nations
Digital Library, 2022);
− Resolution on the situation of human rights
in Ukraine stemming from the Russian
aggression No. 49/1 dated March 4, 2022;
− The deteriorating human rights situation in
Ukraine stemming from the Russian
aggression. Resolution No. S34/1 dated 12
May 2022.
In the mentioned documents, the UN Human
Rights Council strongly condemns the
aggression of the Russian Federation against
Ukraine, and also expresses serious concern
about documented numerous violations of human
rights, in particular the right to life, education,
and the to the highest attainable standard of
health. The UN Human Rights Council
condemned the high number of victims among
the civilian population caused by shelling and
bombing by the Russian Federation, as well as
numerous cases of extrajudicial killings of men,
women and children, sexual and gender-based
violence, torture and other offenses committed
on the territory of Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and
Sumy regions controlled by the armed forces of
the Russian Federation in February and March
2022. An important decision is the adoption by
the UN Human Rights Council of the immediate
establishment of an independent international
investigative commission to investigate human
rights violations and abuses, collect evidence of
these violations, document them, and perform
other related tasks (Rabinovych, 2022;
Vykhovanets, 2016).
So, it can be noted that the military successes of
Ukrainians are determined by both internal
factors (human potential, actions of the
authorities, the introduction of appropriate
changes in the legislative framework), and
external factors (in particular, significant
international support, including financial,
military and humanitarian).
EU and NATO membership course
The EU and NATO membership course is a
strategic goal of Ukraine’s foreign policy. This is
enshrined in Article 85(5) of the Constitution of
Ukraine, which states that the powers of the
Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine include
“determining the principles of domestic and
foreign policy, implementing the state’s strategic
course for Ukraine’s full membership in the
European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization” (Decree No. 254к/96-VR, 1996).
Ukraine’s EU candidate status opens up new
unique opportunities and experience for the state,
and will also testify to the rejection of the post-
Soviet system, the pursuit of well-being for
citizens, as well as a change in their values and
mentality. NATO membership would ensure the
independence, sovereignty, security and integrity
of Ukraine.
Ukraine is waiting for an opinion from the
European Commission to be delivered at the end
of 2022 on its compliance with the
recommendations regarding the country’s status
for EU membership (Perun, 2022). These
recommendations are summarized in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Recommendations of the European Commission regarding the EU membership status of Ukraine
(Source: Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine (2022))
Completion of integrity check of
candidates for members of the
High Council of Justice by the
Ethics Council and selection of
candidates for the High
Qualification Commission of
Judges of Ukraine
Adoption and implementation
of legislation regarding the
procedure for selecting judges
of the Constitutional Court of
Ukraine
Ensuring compliance of anti-
money laundering legislation with
Financial Action Task Force
(FATF) standards
Adoption of the anti-oligarchic
law
Enhancing the fight against
corruption
Overcoming the influence of
vested interests through
legislation
Completion of the reform of the
legislative framework on
national minorities and on mass
media
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Ukraine’s course towards the EU and NATO
membership is irreversible, but this does not
exclude a number of problematic issues along the
way. The process is complex and multifaceted,
and it is impossible to introduce all the necessary
changes at the same time. It is necessary to follow
the chosen direction gradually but steadily.
Ukraine has already gone through a difficult path
to reach the current level of development — and
the military invasion confirmed its achievements.
Cooperation of the state with international
partners, citizens, as well as coordinated and
effective actions of the government regarding the
implementation of further reforms are necessary
for further effective steps.
Promotion of Ukrainian exports and
attraction of foreign investment
Ukraine has a high export potential, in particular,
the main groups of exported commodities
include cereals, oils and fats, ferrous metals, etc.
The development of exports in Ukraine can be
hampered by such factors as the non-compliance
of individual products with international
standards, the ignorance of producers regarding
activities on international markets, insufficient
development of communication with consumers,
lack of financing, etc. However, these obstacles
apply only to individual producers: in general,
Ukraine’s export prospects are high, and the
rejection of the Russian market became an
impetus for producers to focus on European and
other world markets. Among other things, this
contributes to the improvement of the quality of
Ukrainian products, because the high standards
of the EU and some other countries accept only
high-quality products at their market.
Figure 2 shows the geographical structure of
Ukraine’s foreign trade in goods with EU
countries in 2021. The EU is the largest export
direction of Ukraine, because its share in national
exports is about 62% (Center for Innovations
Development, 2022).
Figure 2. Geographical structure of foreign trade in goods with EU countries in 2021 (this $) (Source: State
Statistics Service of Ukraine (2022))
As Figure 2 demonstrates, many European
countries had a negative balance, but almost all countries (except Luxembourg) had a significant
increase compared to 2020 (Figure 3).
-4000000,0
-2000000,0
0,0
2000000,0
4000000,0
6000000,0
8000000,0
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Greece
Denmark
Estonia
Ireland
Spain
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Germany
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Hungary
Finland
France
Croatia
Czechia
Sweden
thsd.USD
Country
Balance Exports Іmports
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Figure 3. Ukraine’s export growth in 2021 (in % to 2020) (Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine,
2022)
Figure 4 illustrates the commodity structure of Ukraine’s exports to EU countries in 2021.
Figure 4. Commodity structure of Ukraine’s exports to EU countries in 2021 (thsd $) (Source: State
Statistics Service of Ukraine (2022))
As Figure 4 demonstrates, non-precious metals
and their products, mineral products, products of plant origin, machines, equipment and
mechanisms have the largest shares in the
57,8
17,5
63,3
19,0
31,8
53,7
3,7
34,2
79,9
49,1
25,8
33,7
-9,6
241,3
25,5
38,4
59,7
45,8
42,8
123,7
87,5
28,3
103,2
51,3
54,6
71,2
48,3
-50,0
0,0
50,0
100,0
150,0
200,0
250,0
300,0
Austria
Belgium
Bulgaria
Greece
Denmark
Estonia
Ireland
Spain
Italy
Cyprus
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Netherlands
Germany
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Hungary
Finland
France
Croatia
Czechia
Sweden
395786,6
3835689,3
2362555,5
1079980,7
3893305,4
931159,6
421638,2
150189,6
1436874,0
189333,5
674314,3
158028,9
327752,1
37411,9
6355220,8
3190931,2
255922,5
46375,9
751,6
- 2000000,0 4000000,0 6000000,0
Live animals, products of animal origin
Products of plant origin
Fats and oils of animal or vegetable origin
Ready food products
Mineral products
Products of the chemical and related industries
Polymeric materials, plastics and their products
Raw hides, leather
Wood and wood products
Pulp of wood or other fibrous cellulosic material
Textile materials and textile products
Shoes, hats, umbrellas
Articles of stone, plaster, cement
Natural or cultured pearls
Non-precious metals and their products
Machines, equipment and mechanisms
Road vehicles, aircrafts
Optical instruments and photographic equipment
Artworks
thsd. USD
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structure. High volumes of exported fats and oils,
wood and its products, ready food products,
products of the chemical industry are also
notable.
The mentioned trends were characteristic of
Ukrainian exports during the period close to the
war. However, according to the state portal Diia.
Business, Ukraine’s exports decreased in 2022
by 32.4% compared to 2021. By product
category, grain crops ($ 7,094 million) rank first
among exported goods, fats and oils, prepared
food fats and waxes ($ 4,859 million) rank
second, and ferrous metals ($ 4,155 million) rank
third (Diia. Business, 2022). Figure 5 presents
the change in export volumes in the months of
2022 compared to the same periods in 2021.
Figure 5. Exports of Ukraine by month (2022 compared to 2021, mln $) (Source: Diia. Business (2022))
As Figure 5 shows, in January and February
2022, export volumes significantly exceeded the
volumes for the previous period. However,
exports fell sharply with the invasion: the
reduction exceeded 50% in some months. In
August, export volumes began to gradually
increase, which is associated with the unblocking
of Ukraine’s Black Sea ports (Center for
Innovations Development, 2022).
In view of the foregoing, it should be emphasized
that Ukraine takes initiatives to improve life in
other countries even in the extremely difficult
conditions of Ukraine’s development at the
current stage, the impossibility of increasing the
export volumes to the pre-war level and in view
of other obstacles. The Grain from Ukraine
Initiative provides for supplying grain to more
than 5 million people in African countries
(Shypulia, 2022). First of all, the initiative helps
in solving the problem of hunger in the target
countries. Besides, it meets the first goal of the
sustainable development concept — zero hunger,
and also significantly improves the image of
Ukraine in the eyes of the world community.
The attraction of foreign investment is another
important strategic direction of Ukraine’s foreign
policy. Foreign investment enables
implementing large projects, use the latest
technologies and management methods, and are
also an important source of financing for the
post-war reconstruction of the country. Figures 6
and 7 illustrate the structure by countries and the
total volume of investment in 2021.
3932
4521
5267 5374 5553 5327 5615
6309 6416 6272
6009
5296
2646 2642 2906 3157 2929
3354
4140 3805
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2021 2022
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Figure 6. Direct investment of the countries in Ukraine in 2021, % (Source: National Bank of Ukraine
(2022))
Figure 7. Direct investment in Ukraine in 2021, mln $ (Source: National Bank of Ukraine (2022))
As Figure 6 demonstrates, Cyprus, the
Netherlands, Germany, and Switzerland are the largest investors among the countries of the
world in Ukraine. The total volume of foreign
2%
1%
2%
21%
4%
21%
11%
3%
1%
2%
2%
2%
1%
10%
1% 15%
Austria
Hong Kong, a special
administrative region of China
Ireland
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Germany
Poland
Slovakia
Turkey
Hungary
France
Czech Republic
Switzerland
Sweden
Other countries
Direct investment (total) $6,686.6 mln
Equity instruments
$5,501.7 mln
Equity instruments other than income reinvestment
$1,185.7 mln
income reinvestment $4,316 mln
Debt instruments
$1,184.9 mln
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investments (Figure 7) in Ukraine in 2021
amounted to more than $6,686.6 mln.
According to Bankchart (2022) data, in Q1 2022,
when the large-scale military invasion began,
investment in Ukraine decreased by 133% (-$470
million). However, in Q2 2022, the growth rate
was positive and amounted to 155% ($260
million) (Bankchart, 2022). According to the
Ministry of Economy, the government received
about 250 applications regarding future
investment in Ukraine at the beginning of
October. Therefore, the state remains a
promising destination for foreign investors
(Epravda, 2022).
Protection of the rights and interests of
Ukrainian citizens abroad
As Article 3 of the Constitution of Ukraine
provides, “An individual, his life and health,
honour and dignity, inviolability and security
shall be recognised in Ukraine as the highest
social value” (Decree No. 254к/96-VR, 1996).
Therefore, ensuring the protection of the rights
and interests of Ukrainian citizens abroad is one
of the most important strategic areas of Ukraine’s
foreign policy.
Ukraine ranks eighth in the world by the number
of emigrants. The total number of citizens who
left Ukraine for the period 2011 to 2021 is 3.3
million citizens (Yavorovych, 2021;
Gerasymova et al. 2021). However, after the
military invasion, the number of refugees leaving
Ukraine more than doubled. The number of
refugees registered in Europe is more than 7
million people. More than 6.9 million people
have been forcibly displaced (Voice of America,
2022, September 8).
The strategic direction regarding the protection
of the rights and interests of citizens abroad
becomes even more important in the wartime,
especially given that most of the displaced
persons are women and children. The main
legislative documents regulating the status of
refugees are the 1951 UN Refugee Convention
(Decree No. 995_011, 2022) and the 1967 UN
Protocol relating to the Status of Refugees
(Decree No. 995_363, 2002). Ukraine joined
these acts in 2002.
Promoting Ukraine’s positive image in the
world
Creating the positive image of Ukraine in the
world is a strategic goal of Ukraine’s foreign
policy. The Strategy states that building a
positive image of the country will be facilitated
by the use of “soft power” — cooperation rather
than coercive methods — through the public
diplomacy tools. The creation of a positive image
is also discussed when determining the goals of
Ukraine’s foreign policy, which include
countering disinformation that harms the
country’s image.
First of all, strengthening the positive image of
Ukraine provides for its vision by foreign
partners as a “democratic, multicultural and
people-cantered state.” Besides, creating a
convenient system for issuing visas for
foreigners, as well as attracting the potential of
citizens who have left Ukraine to implement the
goals of the state’s foreign policy (On the
Foreign Policy Strategy of Ukraine) will also
contribute to building a positive image.
Discussion
The conducted research identified the main
strategic directions of Ukraine’s foreign policy,
in particular, ensuring the sovereignty and
territorial integrity of Ukraine, countering the
aggression of the Russian Federation, the
country’s EU and NATO membership course,
promoting Ukrainian exports and attracting
foreign investment, protecting the rights and
interests of Ukrainian citizens abroad, promoting
a positive image of Ukraine in the world. These
areas are legally enshrined in the Foreign Policy
Strategy of Ukraine, and are a relevant issue for
Ukrainian and foreign researchers.
Pashkov (2021) notes clarifying conditions for
the transition from confrontation with the
Russian Federation to peaceful coexistence as an
important position contained in the Strategy.
However, the author believes that this is
impossible under current realities. The
development of mechanisms for bringing the
aggressor state to justice for illegal actions
committed on the territory of Ukraine, as well as
determining the procedures for compensating it
for losses and damages should be considered
more important directions. In this context,
Sarakhman (2022) states that the Resolution
“Aggression against Ukraine” adopted on March
2, 2022 is an important international document
condemning the invasion of the Russian
Federation into Ukraine. The document contains
a demand for the immediate withdrawal of troops
from the territory of Ukraine and condemnation
of the decision of the Russian Federation on the
status of certain territories of Donetsk and
Luhansk regions.
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Kresin (2022) outlines a number of changes that
Ukraine should initiate for building the security
system of the EU and the entire world. These
changes relate to the adoption of the UN
Convention that prohibits aggression against a
sovereign state, and establishes punishment for
this crime; creation of a security system based on
security guarantees and appropriate diplomatic
and military response to its violations; amending
the Charter of the International Court of Justice
of the United Nations; creation of a permanent
UN peacekeeping contingent to respond to
threats to the population and infrastructure;
inclusion of measures to counter non-military
threats, such as propaganda, terror, intimidation,
etc. in the security.
Melnyk (2021) notes in the context of the EU and
NATO membership requirements that Ukraine
cannot change instantly — changes require a
long time. This statement is true at the time of
writing the researcher’s work — 2021, however,
the situation has undergone certain changes with
the military invasion, as the results of this study
testify. The world got convinced of Ukraine’s
ability to resist the aggression of a much larger
country in terms of area and population, which
apparently had been planning an attack a long
time ago. In turn, Ukraine received significant
support for its confrontation efforts from the
countries of the world — financial, military,
humanitarian, etc. At the end of 2022, Ukraine is
waiting for a decision from the European
Commission on its compliance with the
recommendations regarding the Ukraine’s EU
candidate status. This fact alone indicates that
Europe is open to perceive Ukraine as a strong
and equal partner, so there are high chances that
Ukraine’s path to the EU and NATO membership
will be shorter.
However, some studies show that not all
European countries believe that Ukraine is ready
and is entitled to start the process of preparing for
EU accession. Van Elsuwege and Van der Loo
(28 March 2022) emphasize that Ukraine has
made significant progress in implementing the
Association Agreement, but the expected
catastrophic economic consequences caused by
the war may overturn these efforts and hamper
the implementation of the reform agenda. A
slightly different opinion was expressed in this
article: while agreeing with the authors on the
devastating consequences of the war, it should
be, however, noted that this view considers only
one side of the issue. First, all European countries
will feel and already feel the consequences of the
war. Second, it is necessary to take into account
that Ukraine continues to move along the chosen
course even in the most difficult times, and fulfils
the necessary requirements despite the obstacles.
Third, it is worth reminding that Ukraine is
currently a kind of “shield” for Europe in the face
of the aggressor. This struggle requires
cooperation of efforts, and Ukraine’s
approximation to the EU and NATO membership
could provide certain security guarantees to the
country, which is crucial for the security of the
EU as a whole, among other things.
This opinion may seem somewhat discrete in
contrast to the economic collapse caused by the
war, which is an objective reality. However,
some studies focus on the ideological side of the
issue. Bélanger (16 March 2022) notes that the
EU would probably not ignore the symbolism
behind supporting Ukraine – one of the last non-
EU countries – at times when it is attacked by an
aggressor. Otherwise it may affect the confidence
of other countries in the EU as a regional power
because of its uncertainty about expanding its
borders. Sapir (2022) notes that Ukraine had little
chance of obtaining the EU candidate status
before the invasion of the Russian Federation, let
alone becoming a EU member in the near future.
However, the heroic struggle of Ukrainians
against the aggressor gained the respect of all EU
countries, which became the reason for granting
Ukraine, as well as the neighbouring country
Moldova, the candidate status. The researcher
states two main obstacles on Ukraine’s way to
the EU membership: partially occupied
territories and the low quality of governance.
However, these obstacles should be ignored in
the event of Ukraine’s victory in the war, because
Ukraine will return its territories, and the quality
of governance, strengthened by the spirit of
victory, will be beyond question. If the victory is
not complete, the EU membership prospects will
be less favourable because of the constant
conflict with the aggressor.
Many researchers express concern about the state
of global food security in the context of the
reduction of exports from Ukraine, especially
grain crops described in the article. Some studies,
for example, the article by Ben Hassen and El
Bilali (2022), provide positive aspects in this
regard. The reduction of grain exports will
contribute to the intensification of agriculture in
other countries, as well as the development of
innovations in the field. Jagtap et al., (2022)
found that the biggest reduction in Ukrainian
grain exports will adversely affect Europe and
Africa. The researchers recommend that these
regions to consider alternative grain suppliers.
Some researchers even propose sanctions relief
packages for affected third countries in the
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absence of alternatives (Hellegers, 2022). So, the
studies are mostly focused on the ways out of the
crisis for countries affected by the reduction of
Ukrainian exports. However, as this study found,
Ukraine does not avoid the issue of combating
the global food crisis and comes up with an
initiative to provide African countries with grain
even in difficult conditions, which emphasizes its
participation in combating the food crisis and
promotes the country’s positive image.
Conclusions
The conducted research found that Ukraine
received a strategic document on foreign policy
for the first time in its history — the Foreign
Policy Strategy — just before the military
invasion. The article discusses six main
directions of the Strategy, which are relevant in
view of the Russia-Ukraine confrontation,
namely: ensuring the sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Ukraine, countering the aggressive
policy of the Russian Federation, the course
towards EU and NATO membership, promoting
Ukrainian exports and attracting foreign
investment, protecting rights and interests of
Ukrainian citizens abroad, promoting a positive
image of Ukraine in the world.
The article identifies the main regulatory
documents that guide certain directions of
Ukraine’s foreign policy, and also focuses on the
results achieved in each of the directions at the
time of the study. It was established that the
outlined strategic directions affect not only the
national interests of Ukraine, but also the
interests of other countries. Therefore, Ukraine’s
EU member status would increase security
guarantees for both Ukraine and the Member
States by moving the EU border further to the
East, increasing the export of Ukrainian grain
would contribute to counteracting the food crisis,
and the fight against the aggression of the
Russian Federation would enhance the
guarantees of security, independence and
freedom for all countries of the world to develop
progressively.
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