3. The upward price trend for seamless pipes
(Vanleeuwen, June 2021) has also
accelerated over the past few weeks, boosted
by rising scrap prices. Compounds for
seamless pipes are fully filled in the coming
months. Strong rumors that China will
impose an export surcharge may further
reinforce this acceleration.
4. The increase in prices for hot-rolled coils
immediately affects prices for welded tubes
and hollow sections. Over the past few
months, one price increase followed another.
Now the price level for welded pipes is even
higher than for seamless pipes.
(Vanleeuwen, June 2021).
5. Prices for fittings and flanges have also
increased recently due to higher material
prices. In this group of goods, prices for
flanges from China increased more, which is
connected with the above-mentioned
cancellation of the export tax discount in this
country. (Vanleeuwen, June 2021).
6. According to the International Tube
Association, the crisis as a result of the
coronavirus pandemic has had a severe
negative impact on the global oil and gas
industry, and the lack of demand has led to a
drop in steel pipe prices.
7. The US, Russia, China, Canada, Mexico,
Iran, Ukraine, Argentina, and India accounts
for 80% of the total pipeline network present
worldwide. In CY2017, global large
diameter pipe demand was around 15.7
million tons. China is the biggest market and
North America surged to number two for
pipeline consumption, followed by middle
east and European nations. Major Risks and
Concerns: Slowdown or trimming of
proposed capex in oil and gas sector;
Volatility in raw material prices; Delay in
commissioning of new expansion facility;
Delay in client approvals for new facility
and project execution; Further intensifying
protectionist measures in key geographies to
impact export business (BP Equities Pvt.
Limited, 2019).
8. If we look at hot-rolled coil prices, we see a
serious problem for OEM tubes. Since
September 2020, prices have risen about
340% from $450/ton to a peak of about
$1,500/ton in November 2021. Since then,
hot-rolled coil prices have moderated at a
high level. Now prices are rising again
(Voswinckel G., 2022).
9. Fluctuations in the price of tubular products
generally repeat general trends in the steel
market, as they are set by such factors as the
state of the economy in general, the level of
demand from key consumer industries (oil
and gas sector, construction, engineering
industry), and the cost of raw materials,
namely flat products. The year 2021 was
defined by an increase in demand, followed
by huge price and cost increases combined
with supply chain shortages. Price and cost
spikes peaked in the fall of 2021, although
supply chains and energy costs are still
causing problems. However, the market in
principle provides enough pipe and tube
capacity to meet demand, and therefore will
likely calm down once supply and demand
are balanced again (Volkova, 2021).
10. Anti-dumping measures are applied most
frequently in the U.S., specifically to steel
pipes. Most anti-dumping is applied to
China, Russia, the United States, Brazil,
India, and Mexico. These duties are imposed
in addition to normal customs duties and are
sometimes punitive in nature, although in
principle they should be compensatory, i.e.,
corresponding to the difference between
normal and dumping prices (Drobot &
Veremeeva, 2018).
11. According to Rystad Energy's analysis,
investment from global exploration and
production (E&P) companies in 2021 was
about $380 billion. This is almost unchanged
from last year, but $76 billion in projected
investments in 2021. The projected $20
billion in investments in 2021 could be at
risk of deferral or curtailment, with the
remainder classified as safer levels of low-
to medium-risk. The investment could
recover to pre-crisis levels of $530 billion.
The investment could return to its crisis level
of $530 billion by 2023 if oil prices rise to
about $65. The oil price is expected to rise to
about $880 billion per barrel - although it
should be remembered that after the
previous market crisis in 2014, annual
investment in development and development
never resumed to pre-crisis levels. This is
$880 billion investment against a backdrop
of $500 billion to $550 billion established at
the level of $500 billion to 550 billion USD
(Rystad Energy, 2020).
In our opinion, we should highlight the factors
that can be quantified and included in the
mathematical model. Such factors are: the
volume of oil exports, the processed products of
which are used for transportation of pipes; import
of steel, of which 2/3 of pipe products are
produced.
Initial data for the construction of correlation and
regression analysis are summarized in Table 1.